AI-AUGMENTED CYBERSECURITY: GRAPH NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTING NATION-STATE CYBERATTACKS

Abstract

Nation-state cyberattacks represent one of the most complex and evolving threats to global security, often leveraging sophisticated strategies that exploit structural vulnerabilities across interconnected digital ecosystems. Traditional machine learning models, while effective for anomaly detection and malware classification, struggle to capture the relational and temporal dependencies inherent in coordinated cyber campaigns. This study explores the integration of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) into AI-augmented cybersecurity frameworks to enhance predictive capabilities against nation-state cyberattacks. By modeling cyber infrastructures, threat intelligence, and attack pathways as graph-structured data, GNNs can identify latent patterns and interdependencies between threat actors, targets, and tactics. The proposed framework incorporates multi-source data, including network telemetry, open-source intelligence, and historical incident reports, to construct dynamic attack graphs that evolve in near real time. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that GNN-based models outperform conventional deep learning architectures in forecasting multi-stage intrusions, achieving higher precision in distinguishing state-sponsored campaigns from generic cyber threats. Furthermore, explainability modules embedded within the GNN pipeline improve interpretability by revealing critical nodes, links, and features driving predictions, thereby supporting actionable decision-making for security analysts and policymakers. This work underscores the strategic potential of AI-augmented approaches in advancing national resilience, providing early-warning capabilities, and enabling proactive defense strategies against adversarial state actors.